Estrela vs Benfica prediction
Estrela
BenficaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 73%
- Expected goals 1.0–2.7 (most likely score 1-2)
- Last five: Estrela LLLLD, Benfica WWLWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 1.0–2.7, 3.7 in total.
Both sides expected to score: 1.0 and 2.7 xG.
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Estrela vs Benfica preview
Estrela welcome Benfica on Sunday 8 November in the Primeira Liga. Estrela sit 12th in the table on 10 points from 10 games, while Benfica are 2nd with 22 points. That puts Benfica ten places higher. On form, Estrela have not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (LLLLD), while Benfica have won four of their last five (WWLWW). In front of goal, Estrela score 1.5 and concede 1.9 a game on average; Benfica score 2.9 and concede 0.9. Our model expects around 1.0 goals for Estrela and 2.7 for Benfica, and 1–2 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 60%. We make Estrela 11% to win, the draw 17% and Benfica 73%. Our verdict is Benfica to win: we rate it at 73%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela win | 11% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 17% | – | – | – |
| Benfica win | 73% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 60% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 40% | – | – | – |
| Estrela or draw | 27% | – | – | – |
| Benfica or draw | 89% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 83% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.0 |
| Benfica | 2.7 |
| Total | 3.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Estrela 1–2 Benfica | 9% |
| Estrela 0–2 Benfica | 9% |
| Estrela 1–3 Benfica | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Estrela | |
| Benfica |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 12th | 10 | 10 |
| Benfica | 2nd | 22 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Benfica | 2.9 | 0.9 |
Estrela vs Benfica: FAQ
Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?
We make Estrela 11% to win, the draw 17% and Benfica 73%, so Benfica are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Benfica to win at 73%.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Benfica?
We give both teams to score a 60% chance. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Estrela and 2.7 for Benfica.
How many goals in Estrela vs Benfica?
Our model expects about 3.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and under 2.5 at 28%. The single most likely score is 1–2.
What time does Estrela vs Benfica kick off?
Estrela vs Benfica kicks off at 20:30 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
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