Famalicao vs Arouca prediction
Famalicao
AroucaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 66%
- Expected goals 0.8–1.2, so 34% for over 2.5 and 42% for both to score
- Last five: Famalicao WLWDD, Arouca WWDLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 76% combined.
One side is expected to struggle: 0.9 xG.
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Famalicao vs Arouca preview
Famalicao host Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Friday 6 November. In the standings, Arouca are 5th on 17 points from 9 games and Famalicao 11th on 10 points from 9 games. That puts Arouca six places higher. Both sides have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five: Famalicao WLWDD and Arouca WWDLD. In front of goal, Famalicao score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game on average; Arouca score 1.3 and concede 0.8. On expected goals we have Famalicao at 0.9 and Arouca at 1.2, with 1–1 the most likely score (15%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 34% and both teams to score at 42%. We make Famalicao 24% to win, the draw 33% and Arouca 44%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 66%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 24% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 33% | – | – | – |
| Arouca win | 44% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 66% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 42% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 58% | – | – | – |
| Famalicao or draw | 56% | – | – | – |
| Arouca or draw | 76% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 67% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Famalicao | 0.9 |
| Arouca | 1.2 |
| Total | 2.1 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Famalicao 1–1 Arouca | 15% |
| Famalicao 0–0 Arouca | 14% |
| Famalicao 0–1 Arouca | 14% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Famalicao | |
| Arouca |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 11th | 10 | 9 |
| Arouca | 5th | 17 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Arouca | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Famalicao vs Arouca: FAQ
Who will win Famalicao vs Arouca?
We make Famalicao 24% to win, the draw 33% and Arouca 44%, so Arouca are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
We give both teams to score a 42% chance. Our expected goals are 0.9 for Famalicao and 1.2 for Arouca.
How many goals in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our model expects about 2.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 34% and under 2.5 at 66%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Famalicao vs Arouca kick off?
Famalicao vs Arouca kicks off at 20:45 UTC on Friday 6 November 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
Casa Pia
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Moreirense
Estrela
FC Porto
Estoril
Nacional
Maritimo
Santa Clara
Academico Viseu
Rio Ave