Genoa vs AC Milan prediction
Genoa
AC MilanNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 54%; the best price of 1.81 implies 55%
- Expected goals 1.1–1.4, so 46% for over 2.5 and 47% for both to score
- Last five: Genoa WWLWL, AC Milan WLWWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives AC Milan the win 53%.
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Genoa vs AC Milan preview
Genoa host AC Milan in Serie A on Sunday 8 November. Genoa sit 13th in the table on 10 points from 9 games, while AC Milan are 4th with 21 points. That puts AC Milan nine places higher. Both sides have won three of their last five: Genoa WWLWL and AC Milan WLWWD. In front of goal, Genoa score 0.9 and concede 1.4 a game on average; AC Milan score 2.1 and concede 1.2. Our model expects around 1.1 goals for Genoa and 1.5 for AC Milan, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 47%. We make Genoa 20% to win, the draw 27% and AC Milan 53%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 20%, 27% and 55%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 54%, against 55% implied by the best price of 1.81. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa win | 20% | 5.05 | 20% | +2% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | 27% | -1% |
| AC Milan win | 53% | 1.82 | 55% | -4% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.17 | 46% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.81 | 55% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 2.00 | 50% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 53% | 1.74 | 57% | -8% |
| Genoa or draw | 47% | 2.09 | 48% | -2% |
| AC Milan or draw | 80% | 1.21 | 83% | -4% |
| Either team to win | 73% | 1.32 | 76% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Genoa | 1.1 |
| AC Milan | 1.5 |
| Total | 2.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Genoa 1–1 AC Milan | 14% |
| Genoa 0–1 AC Milan | 10% |
| Genoa 0–0 AC Milan | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Genoa | |
| AC Milan |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 13th | 10 | 9 |
| AC Milan | 4th | 21 | 10 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| AC Milan | 2.1 | 1.2 |
Genoa vs AC Milan: FAQ
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
We make Genoa 20% to win, the draw 27% and AC Milan 53%, so AC Milan are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with AC Milan the shorter price. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AC Milan?
We give both teams to score a 47% chance, against 50% implied by the best price of 2.00. Our expected goals are 1.1 for Genoa and 1.5 for AC Milan.
How many goals in Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 46% and under 2.5 at 54%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.17. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Genoa vs AC Milan kick off?
Genoa vs AC Milan kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in Serie A.
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