Monza vs Atalanta prediction
Monza
AtalantaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%; the best price of 1.49 implies 67%
- Expected goals 2.2–1.6, so 64% for over 2.5 and 61% for both to score
- Last five: Monza LLLWL, Atalanta DDLWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.2 and 1.6 xG.
Our model gives Atalanta the win 55%.
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Monza vs Atalanta preview
Monza welcome Atalanta on Sunday 8 November in Serie A. In the standings, Atalanta are 12th on 11 points from 9 games and Monza 16th on 7 points from 10 games. Atalanta come into it having picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (DDLWL); Monza have lost four of their last five (LLLWL). Monza average 1.7 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, compared with 1.8 and 1.9 for Atalanta. Our model expects around 2.2 goals for Monza and 1.6 for Atalanta, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 61%. We make Monza 23% to win, the draw 22% and Atalanta 55%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 20%, 23% and 59%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 64%, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.49. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza win | 23% | 4.95 | 20% | +14% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.43 | 23% | -2% |
| Atalanta win | 55% | 1.70 | 59% | -7% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.49 | 67% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.55 | 39% | -9% |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 1.55 | 65% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 39% | 2.33 | 43% | -10% |
| Monza or draw | 45% | 2.28 | 44% | +3% |
| Atalanta or draw | 77% | 1.21 | 83% | -7% |
| Either team to win | 78% | 1.25 | 80% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Monza | 2.2 |
| Atalanta | 1.6 |
| Total | 3.8 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Monza 1–1 Atalanta | 9% |
| Monza 2–1 Atalanta | 9% |
| Monza 2–2 Atalanta | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Monza | |
| Atalanta |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 16th | 7 | 10 |
| Atalanta | 12th | 11 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Monza | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| Atalanta | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Monza vs Atalanta: FAQ
Who will win Monza vs Atalanta?
We make Monza 23% to win, the draw 22% and Atalanta 55%, so Atalanta are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Atalanta the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Atalanta?
We give both teams to score a 61% chance, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. Our expected goals are 2.2 for Monza and 1.6 for Atalanta.
How many goals in Monza vs Atalanta?
Our model expects about 3.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.49. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Monza vs Atalanta kick off?
Monza vs Atalanta kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in Serie A.
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