Napoli vs Lazio prediction
Napoli
LazioNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 60%; the best price of 1.66 implies 60%
- Expected goals 1.2–2.0 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Napoli WDLWD, Lazio WWWWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 1.2 and 2.0 xG.
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Napoli vs Lazio preview
Serie A action on Sunday 8 November sees Lazio travel to face Napoli. In the standings, Lazio are 1st on 25 points from 9 games and Napoli 7th on 14 points from 9 games. That puts Lazio six places higher. Lazio come into it having won each of their last five (WWWWW); Napoli have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WDLWD). In front of goal, Napoli score 1.9 and concede 1.2 a game on average; Lazio score 2.4 and concede 0.8. Our model expects around 1.2 goals for Napoli and 2.0 for Lazio, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. We make Napoli 40% to win, the draw 26% and Lazio 34%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 42%, 27% and 32%. Our verdict is Lazio or draw: we rate it at 60%, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.66. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli win | 40% | 2.36 | 42% | -6% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.72 | 27% | -2% |
| Lazio win | 34% | 3.10 | 32% | +5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 | 51% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 1.98 | 51% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 1.72 | 58% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 45% | 2.03 | 49% | -9% |
| Napoli or draw | 66% | 1.42 | 70% | -6% |
| Lazio or draw | 60% | 1.66 | 60% | 0% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.32 | 76% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Napoli | 1.2 |
| Lazio | 2.0 |
| Total | 3.2 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Napoli 1–1 Lazio | 11% |
| Napoli 1–2 Lazio | 10% |
| Napoli 0–2 Lazio | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Napoli | |
| Lazio |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 7th | 14 | 9 |
| Lazio | 1st | 25 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Lazio | 2.4 | 0.8 |
Napoli vs Lazio: FAQ
Who will win Napoli vs Lazio?
We make Napoli 40% to win, the draw 26% and Lazio 34%, so Napoli are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Napoli the shorter price. Our verdict is Lazio or draw at 60%.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Lazio?
We give both teams to score a 55% chance, against 58% implied by the best price of 1.72. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Napoli and 2.0 for Lazio.
How many goals in Napoli vs Lazio?
Our model expects about 3.2 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and under 2.5 at 49%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.96. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Napoli vs Lazio kick off?
Napoli vs Lazio kicks off at 11:30 UTC on Sunday 8 November 2026, in Serie A.
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